World leaders are set to join Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky at a summit in Switzerland to explore ways of ending the deadliest conflict in Europe since World War II, but Russia isn't invited and the event will fall short of Kyiv's aim of isolating Moscow.
Zelensky’s government didn’t want Russia involved, and the Swiss — aware of Moscow’s reservations about the talks — didn’t invite Russia. The Swiss insist Russia must be involved at some point, and hope it will join the process one day. Ukrainians, too, are considering that possibility.
Russian president Vladimir Putin yesterday said Russia would only enter peace talks if Ukraine drops its NATO ambitions and withdraws its forces from four Ukrainian regions claimed by Moscow.
The conference, underpinned by elements of a 10-point peace formula presented by Zelensky in late 2022, is unlikely to produce major results and is seen as a largely symbolic effort on the part of Kyiv to rally the international community and project strength against its better armed and numbered adversary.
But the question looming over the summit will be how the two countries can move back from the brink and eventually silence the guns in a war that has cost hundreds of billions of dollars and caused hundreds and thousands of deaths and injuries, without Moscow attending.
US Vice President Kamala Harris, French President Emmanuel Macron and the leaders of Germany, Italy, Britain, Canada and Japan are among those set to attend the meeting at the Swiss mountaintop resort of Buergenstock this weekend. The Vatican has also been added to the list.
Zelenskiy met Pope Francis on the sidelines of the G7 summit, the Ukrainian leader said, adding that the Vatican would take part in this weekend's international summit in Switzerland on Ukraine.
"We appreciate the Vatican's participation in the Summit and efforts aimed at bringing peace, in particular regarding the return of Ukrainian children abducted by Russia," Zelenskiy wrote in a statement.
US President Joe Biden, who was wrapping up a visit to Italy for a Group of Seven summit, opted to dispatch Harris and national security adviser Jake Sullivan.
Russia's key ally China will not attend.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry has said it believes any such international peace conference should involve both Russia and Ukraine, although Beijing supports efforts to bring the conflict to an end and is monitoring the developments in Switzerland.
India, which has helped Moscow survive the shock of economic sanctions, is expected to send a delegation. Turkey and Hungary, which similarly maintain cordial ties with Russia, will be represented by their foreign ministers.
The final list of attendees has not been finalised, and question marks remain about how key developing countries might take part, if at all.
But so far, under half of the 193 United Nations member countries are planning to attend, testifying to a wait-and-see attitude in many world capitals.
"This meeting is already a result," Zelensky said, while also acknowledging the challenge of maintaining international support as the war, now well into its third year, grinds on.
"Uniting countries who are partners and non-partners is a difficult mission in itself for Ukraine, when the war is not in its first month."
Zelensky visited Saudi Arabia this week to discuss preparations for the summit with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman but it was not immediately clear whether the kingdom would send a representative.
Ulrich Schmid, a political scientist and Eastern Europe expert at the University of St Gallen in Switzerland, called the summit "a mixed bag", given the show of support from some quarters and China's absence.
"Then the question arises: is peace actually doable?" Schmid added.
"As long as (Russian President Vladimir) Putin is in power... it will be difficult."
'Futile'
Russia, which sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine on February 24, 2022, has described the idea of a summit to which it is not invited as "futile".
Moscow casts its "special military operation" in Ukraine as part of a broader struggle with the West, which it said wants to bring Russia to its knees. Kyiv and the West said this is nonsense and accused Russia of waging an illegal war of conquest.
The idea of a summit was originally floated after Zelensky presented a 10-point peace plan in late 2022.
Since then there has been a series of preparatory meetings.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky. - AP
The proposal had appeared to be gaining some traction, with China and some major countries from the "Global South" signalling interest at a meeting in Saudi Arabia last August.
However, the war in Gaza has sapped momentum and Moscow has sought to undermine the summit's validity.
Meanwhile, China, along with Brazil, is pushing a separate peace plan for Ukraine that calls for the participation of both warring parties. Moscow has previously voiced its support for China's efforts to end the conflict.
Kyiv has not hidden its frustration at China's decision to skip the Swiss summit. Zelensky even accused Beijing of helping Russia to disrupt it, an extraordinary outburst against a global superpower with unrivalled influence over Moscow.
On the battlefield, the gathering comes at a difficult time for Ukraine. Russian troops, who control around 18% of Ukrainian territory, are advancing in the east in a war that has killed tens of thousands of soldiers and civilians, left villages, towns and cities in ruins and uprooted millions.
Given such headwinds and the entrenched differences between Ukraine and Russia, the summit will shy away from territorial issues and focus on parts of Zelensky's plan that are broad enough to be palatable to most, if not all, participants.
These include the need to guarantee food security, nuclear safety, freedom of navigation and prisoner exchanges, officials said.
What Next?
Much of the discussion surrounding the Swiss summit has centred on where and when the next talks could be held.
Andriy Yermak, head of Zelensky's office, told reporters this week that a "huge number" of countries were already interested. "And we are looking for the possibility in the second summit to invite a representative of Russia," he said.
Switzerland wants the Buergenstock summit to pave the way for a "future peace process" in which Russia takes part.
The summit comes amid a diplomatic flurry over Ukraine. Zelensky is attending the G7 summit in Italy this week, and Ukraine will push for progress on funding both at a European Union summit this month and a NATO summit in early July.
Supporters of Ukraine are marking the Swiss talks with a series of events in the nearby city of Lucerne to draw attention to the war's humanitarian costs, with a demonstration planned to call for the return of prisoners and children taken to Russia.
Switzerland hopes a joint statement will be issued at the close of the summit - if a consensus among participants can be reached.