Britain has announced it would radically change its approach to defence to address threats from Russia, nuclear risks and cyber-attacks by investing in drones and digital warfare rather than relying on a much larger army to engage in modern combat.
Responding to US President Donald Trump's insistence that Europe take more responsibility for its own security, Prime Minister Keir Starmer has pledged the largest sustained increase to defence spending since the end of the Cold War.
‘The end of the peace dividend,’ Britain’s chief of defence staff says on review. – Reuters
But with limited finances, the government's plan envisages making the army more lethal, not larger, by learning from Ukraine where drones and technology have transformed the battlefield.
Defence Secretary John Healey said Britain's adversaries were working more in alliance and technology was changing how war was fought: "Drones now kill more people than traditional artillery in the war in Ukraine and whoever gets new technology into the hands of their armed forces the quickest will win."
Starmer commissioned a Strategic Defence Review shortly after he was elected in July, tasking experts including former NATO boss, George Robertson, and a former Russia adviser to the White House, Fiona Hill, with formulating a plan for the next 10 years.
Despite cuts to the military budget in recent years, Britain still ranks alongside France as one of Europe's leading military powers, with its army helping to protect NATO's eastern flank and its navy maintaining a presence in the Indo-Pacific.
But the army, with 70,860 full-time trained soldiers, is the smallest since the Napoleonic era and the government has said it needs to be reformed given the growing strategic threats.
New defence age
Under the plan accepted by the government, Britain will expand its fleet of attack submarines which are nuclear-powered but carry conventional weapons, and will spend £15 billion (US$20.3 billion) before the next election due in 2029 on the replacement of the nuclear warheads for its main nuclear fleet.
It will build at least six new munitions plants, procure up to 7000 British-made long-range weapons, and launch new communication systems for the battlefield.
A Cyber and Electromagnetic Command will lead defensive and offensive cyber capabilities, after UK military networks faced more than 90,000 "sub-threshold" attacks in the past two years.
But on the size of the armed forces, the review said it would not reduce numbers, even as a greater emphasis is put on technology, but increasing the total number of regular personnel should be prioritised when funding allows, likely after 2029.
"The moment has arrived to transform how we defend ourselves," Starmer told workers at BAE Systems' Govan shipbuilding site in Scotland, saying he would "end the hollowing out of our armed forces".
"When we are being directly threatened by states with advanced military forces, the most effective way to deter them is to be ready."
Starmer has already said defence spending will increase to 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2027, from 2.3 per cent, but critics and political opponents urged the government to put a date on when it would move to 3 per cent of GDP.
Reuters has previously reported that NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte wants members to raise defence spending to 3.5 per cent of their GDP, and a further 1.5 per cent on broader security-related items to meet Trump's demand for a 5 per cent target.
Starmer said he was "100 per cent confident" that UK defence spending would hit 3 per cent in the next parliament likely between 2029-2034 – something the review appeared to take into account when drafting its recommendations.
Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer speaks with members of the Royal Navy. – Reuters
The government described its policy as "NATO first", drawing on the strength of the alliance's members which meant it would never fight alone.
Starmer has sought to cast the higher defence spending as a way to create jobs and wealth, as he juggles severely strained public finances, a slow-growing economy and declining popularity among an increasingly dissatisfied electorate.
The announcement about new submarines helped lift the share prices of defence groups Babcock, BAE and Rolls Royce.
What's in Britain's Strategic Defence Review?
Britain will on Monday publish the results of a 10-month review into the country's defence capabilities, which is expected to set out the growing threats it faces and where ministers must invest to improve national security.
Here is what the government has already announced in the days preceding the Strategic Defence Review.
Attack submarines: No cost given
The government said it would increase the size of its nuclear-powered attack submarine fleet to as many as 12, up from the current seven. The new generation of attack submarines will be a model jointly developed by the UK, USand Australia under the security partnership known as AUKUS.
Nuclear warhead replacement program: £15 billion
The government has for the first time put a price tag on a pre-existing national program to develop a new nuclear warhead to replace the current model – £15 billion.
Munitions factories: £1.5 billion
Britain will build at least six new factories producing weapons and explosives, forming part of an "always-on" approach for the manufacture of priority munitions.
Battlefield AI: More than £1 billion
A new "Digital Targeting Web" will help connect weapon systems and harness artificial intelligence to improve identifying and eliminating battlefield targets, the government said.
Cyber and electromagnetic command
Britain will establish a new unit to lead its defensive cyber operations and help coordinate offensive cyber capabilities. It will also cover advanced signal jamming and other means of disrupting communications.
Armed forces housing: £1.5 billion
The government has pledged to improve the poor state of housing for the country's armed forces, seeking to help recruitment, retention and morale.
Britain's Defence Secretary John Healey, left, inspects a Storm Shadow missile on the production line in Stevenage, England. – AP